Gavin Fernando SEPTEMBER 27, 2019
The prospect of an “all out war” looks more likely now than it did a month ago — and one world leader faces a huge and risky decision.
The prospect of a fresh Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia is lingering, and the kingdom’s Crown Prince faces a big dilemma.
In light of President Donald Trump’s new sanctions on Iran’s national bank, an increasingly tangible retaliatory measure for Tehran is to further target vulnerable US partners, including Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom’s military capacity is relatively weak, and its ambitious domestic projects leave it ill-prepared for a major battle.
Experts say the kingdom’s de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman is acutely aware he can’t defeat Iran in an event of war.
But if a major conflict was to break out — a still-unpredictable but increasingly likely prospect — the Saudi government may be left with few options.
SAUDI CROWN PRINCE’S GROWING HEADACHE
Tensions between the United States and Iran have been back on the boil for over a year now, but things really ramped up following the September 14 air strikes on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.
Last week, Iran’s foreign minister warned that any attack on his country would result in “all-out war”.
Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported Houthi militants saying Iran was preparing a follow-up strike.
Neither Tehran nor Washington appears willing to negotiate with the other.
If Iran does launch a fresh attack on Saudi Arabia, bin Salman could either wait for US support or go it alone.
But he’s well aware he’ll be fighting an uphill battle if he does.
Curtin University lecturer and author of Securitising Identity: The Case of the Saudi State, Ben Rich, said a major conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia would easily take more of a toll on the latter.
“The prospect of a war with Iran would be exponentially more problematic for the Saudis than Iran,” he told news.com.au.
Dr Rich noted Iran has more tools at its disposal that could cause more damage to the Saudis, including its missile program.
Saudi Arabia, by contrast, has less manpower and experience with launching air strikes in hostile spaces. It also has a population less than half the size of Iran’s, and while it boasts a more modern and effective aircraft, it ultimately couldn’t sustain an open-ended war.
The country is already involved in a costly war in neighbouring Yemen against the Iran-aligned rebel Houthi movement.
At the same time, the kingdom needs every penny to finance Saudi Vision 2030, an ambitious plan to diversify its economy and revolutionise tourism to the kingdom over the next decade.
“I think (bin Salman) is quite brash and takes action where he doesn’t really think it through … but I think even he knows an Iranian conflict would be ruinous for him, and could be the end of his prospects as leader,” said Dr Rich. “We’ve seen an effort (on the Saudis’ part) to try and de-escalate against the Iranians.
“Saudis know the potential blowback is very high and that kind of blowback could existentially be a threat to them, and they don’t have the tools for it.”
But at the same time, bin Salman will also not want to risk being perceived as weak at home, particularly in the face of a historical enemy like Iran.
Earlier in the week, the Saudi kingdom said it had evidence showing Iran sponsored the September 14 attacks, and called on the international community to take action.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION MULLS CYBER ATTACK
The Trump administration has a growing international crisis on its hands — one foreign policy experts agree is among the most serious of the President’s nearly three years in power.
Global oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the September 14 attack. It also sparked back-and-forth threats of a tangible “war” seen in few other flashpoints around the world.
As we speak, the White House is still considering the most appropriate course of action — that is, a retaliatory move that would deter Tehran from further strikes without exacerbating conflict in the region.
In practical terms, its response has been mild so far. The Trump administration has directly blamed Iran, called the air strikes an “act of war”, imposed sanctions on its central bank and dispatched defensive troops to Saudi Arabia, but these actions are viewed as unlikely to fully deter Iran.
Dr Rich noted the US acts “extremely cautious” in this space. “They only do things when they’re 100 per cent sure there won’t be any blowback,” he said, citing last year’s air strikes in Syria as an example.
At the same time, Mr Trump no doubt has his own concerns about getting involved in a drawn-out conflict — US vessels and bases would be vulnerable to Iranian attacks, and he may fear any significant prices in petrol stations could harm his re-election campaign.
The Trump administration is currently mulling a retaliatory cyber strike — a form of attack the US has used on Iran several times dating back to Barack Obama’s first term in office.
“The President talked about our use of those previously, but I’m certainly not going to forecast what we’ll do as we move forward,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday on CBS’s Face The Nation, when asked about the possibility of a cyber attack.
“This was Iran true and true, and the United States will respond in a way that reflects that act of war by this Iranian revolutionary regime.”
EUROPEAN POWERS UNITE AGAINST IRAN
Yesterday, Germany, France and the UK issued a joint statement at the UN saying Iran was behind the September 14 air strikes on Saudi Arabia.
“It is clear for us that Iran bears responsibility for this attack,” they said. “There is no other explanation.
“These attacks may have been on Saudi Arabia but they concern all countries and increase the risk of a major conflict.”
This statement is a big deal. For one thing, it’s a major boost for the Trump administration, which has repeatedly blamed Iran for the attacks on two vital Saudi Arabian oil facilities last weekend.
For another, it sends a very clear message that the international community — besides Russia and China — accept the Trump administration’s narrative that the drone strikes were sponsored by Iran.
So what will happen next? Dr Rich stressed there was too much going on behind the scenes to make any major predictions about that just yet.
That said, he warned we could potentially see a “critical domino effect”, with Iran and the US continually striking at one another.
“War is certainly more likely this week than it was a month ago,” he added.
World News Blog 