Passengers wait for a train in the Ukrainian city of Lviv, hoping to reach safety in Europe.(AP: Bernat Armangue)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed everything for Europe and will have profound consequences for the future of the region’s security and society.
After 30 years of peace, the invasion of Ukraine has shaken the complacency felt by many Europeans who are witnessing war on the continent in a way many thought had been confined to history.
This is not a conflict that can be compared to the various Balkan wars of the 90s.
As terrible and violent as they were, the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia didn’t threaten the liberal world order or the post-Cold War security certainties of Europe.
The Ukraine crisis is so very different.
Ukraine is a sovereign state that has been attacked by one of the world’s strongest military forces, led by an increasingly unpredictable leader with an arsenal that includes thousands of nuclear weapons.
The Ukrainians will resist, the conflict will inevitably escalate, and it will become increasingly brutal.
LIVE UPDATES: Read our blog for the latest on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Unprecedented shifts
The EU — a notoriously slow and bureaucratic collective — has already moved swiftly to approve severe sanctions and for the first time in its history agreed to finance the purchase and delivery of weapons to a country outside the bloc.
How Western sanctions are targeting Russia
Leaders have announced a raft of sanctions against Russia’s banking, finance, energy and technology sectors after its forces invaded Ukraine. Here are the curbs proposed so far.
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Germany has also said it will now commit to spending more than 2 per cent of its GDP on its military — a significant reversal of its post-WWII and post-Cold War defence policy.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged to revamp the country’s armed forces. In a speech to the parliament, he declared: “It’s clear we need to invest significantly more in the security of our county, in order to protect our freedom and our democracy.”
This is an important shift.
Germany’s special economic, trade and political relationship with Russia, which endured even after the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the Crimea crisis of 2014, is now over.
European nations will also now be more united and focused on the need to secure and protect their eastern borders.
European nations will need to protect their eastern borders.(ABC News)
A new wave of refugees and asylum seekers will sweep across the continent and border countries will likely become staging posts for resistance fighters flocking to what they, and their governments, see as a just conflict.
Those countries will be demanding more military and security resources and the pressures on Poland or Hungary or Estonia will be felt more than ever in Paris and Rome and Berlin.
Economically the decision to cut Russian banks from the Swift payments system will isolate Russian industry from accessing foreign currency and prevent Russian citizens from making individual credit card transactions.
Freezing Russian foreign exchange reserves is likely to bring recession to Russia which will, in turn, impact the broader European economy.
The EU is still reliant on Russian gas, but real efforts must now be made to find alternatives. Europe has already taken record deliveries of LNG from elsewhere and discussions with alternative suppliers are continuing. The conflict is also likely to lead to an accelerated push towards renewable energy.
And there will be real pressure for a speedy resolution to Ukraine’s desire to join the EU.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s signing of Ukraine’s EU application from his wartime bunker was not dismissed as a theatrical stunt as it might have been in the past.
Earlier the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, had said: “Ukraine is one of us and we want them in.”
Until now there hasn’t been much enthusiasm for fast-tracking future growth. The last country to gain accession to the EU was Croatia in 2013 — and it was 10 years after it first applied for membership.
A long war ahead
It is clear this will not be a short war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of backing down and there appears to be no face-saving way for him to do so.
Satellite images show Russian advance on Kyiv
Russian troops are now just 25km from the centre of Kyiv.
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He will have his own pressures to deal with as the war goes on and the body bags return with young Russian conscripts — many of whom had no real idea why they were sent to war in the first place.
While some Russians may not view Ukraine as a separate sovereign country, many do have family connections. The bonds between Russians and Ukrainians run deep.
The war will not be popular and the longer it goes on the more resistance and internal dissent will grow.
For Europe and Russia, the economic and humanitarian consequences will be significant.
Russians will wear this hardship as they have many others, but are Europeans ready for the economic and humanitarian shocks that are coming next?
Michael Brissenden is a former ABC foreign correspondent, based in Moscow and Brussels.
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